There are no pending issues of importance for the city council or the school board, so this election has been restricted to bland political posturing by the candidates. I didn't see anything in the material they have been handing out that sets any of them in any unique positions. It's all “Maintain a fiscally sound and responsible school (and city council)”, “Improve communication with the community”, “Create long term vision”. Blah.

They didn't even have a "Meet the candidate" night at the HS. Not sure who organizes those, and given the restrictions they set on questions it is not a loss for the community.

Clifford had an ad in the TVN that listed the names of her supporters. Judging from the names on that list, I am guessing that she is the candidate of the old McLeod cabal, which had a philosophy consisting of “rubberstamp anything the superintendent proposes”, and act as shields, preventing any parent from having their issues brought before and acted on by the board. But McLeod is gone, so I don't know if that group has any relevance now.

Douglass has numerous slick flyers out and a big half page ad in the TWG. I guess he is the “buy your way into office” candidate. It will be interesting to see his campaign expenditure filing, will he break the record $8K spent by Joanne Peters in her election?

Steve Von Jasinski had a surprising letter to the ed in the TVN, he gave a glowing recommendation for "Arron Bowman" for the City Council. Given that he is a big D and Bowman is a teabagging R, you wonder what caused that letter (although the standard R and D positions have little effect on local votes, no candidate for the city or school have asked for county backing from the R and D central committees). Rumor is that V.J. has plans for taking the presidency of the council, and with no possibility of changing the minds of the current fellow council members he wants a new member who will be his vassal. Good luck with that, V.J.

(I just noticed, V.J. misspelled his name in the paper, it's Aaron, not Arron.)

Four seats on the city council are on the ballot Nov. 3 and no big news in this election. The incumbents are all running, council Pres Steve Reynolds, Anthony Panzera, Susan Jagers and Elizabeth Koelker. A quick Google shows no new info on these council members (but I was surprised to find that Anthony Panzera had a write-in campaign in winning his seat for the first time in November 2001).

Aaron Bowman, a newish resident of Grandview, is also running. He is a VP of sales at Century Resources, a company that provides school-related funding programs (food and candy etc, used in fund raisers for schools). His Facebook page shows he went to Columbus Academy and University of Dayton, and has a preference for Michigan football. He goes by the name “acbo47” on twitter but hasn't posted a tweet yet.

There is an Aaron Bowman of Columbus listed as a participant on an organizing page for a “tea party” (the people who protest against President Obama and government in general). This list was on a website called AR15.com, a website for firearm enthusiasts.

(later) Interesting. When I posted a link to the tea party page with Aaron Bowman's name, the post on AR15.com disappeared from the website. Let's see if this copy of the same list  on another website remains up.

The city has completed negotiations and signed the paperwork with NRI, setting the city on a irreversible path to start construction on Grandview Yard. Maybe it will all work out as planned, and retail business will prosper, and the city will eventually gain new tax money from the project. Maybe the schools will cope with the new families in the housing to be built, and the school system will benefit.

Given the bad news we read in the papers every day on the economy, it seems like a long shot. Who can predict with certainty? Despite the Mayor's reassurance that the deal has “non-recourse” clauses in the contract that protect the city, we know it will be bad PR if things go south. It can't be good to be known as “Grandview, the city with a failed development rusting away on prime property”.

There are worse possibilities than just a failed shopping district.

During the lead up to the negotiations the city council looked at every possible outcome, and speculated on the chances of them occurring. The following scenario was one that a council member outlined for me in general, I filled in some speculation, but this is a real possibility.

Failed G.Y. development

I'm not very optimistic about the short and medium economic picture. The best story I have read about the country's financial sector is this Atlantic article, it has a good non-ideological explanation of the problem and the solutions. Washington is not doing very well with those solutions. Unemployment is the other big problem, and I share Krugman's skepticism over a turnaround. Between outsourcing and mechanization of production there are a lot of lost jobs that will never return. Building windmills will not change that fact. I think we are headed for a Japan style 10 year economic downturn.

NRI has told the city that the phase one construction of three buildings and a two story parking lot are on the way, but no major retail has been signed yet. We are still left with this quote - “The developer is looking to show the project will happen and hopefully that will generate more interest." I understand the basics of the strategy, gas prices have caused the ever larger ring of new shopping developments to become unsustainable. G.Y. is supposed to be the central development that the City Center failed to become.

Without a big economic recovery, I don't think the metro area needs G.Y.

NRI has said they are in for the long term. They are willing to wait for conditions to be right to start building the full project. I think they have good intentions – but the pressure on CEOs is to make short term profits. After the second or third new leader of nationwide takes the helm 6 years in the future, that dog of an investment, empty land in Grandview causing nothing but losses will be an easy target for elimination. The sale of 50 acres to another developer will be a fast solution.

The building of low income housing.

Federal programs to increase the building of low income housing are sure to be on the rise. The new jobs that are created are needed, the housing is needed.

The building of low income housing in central city areas is the traditional way, but it is being successfully challenged by Anti-Discrimination groups. Read this NYT article about the landmark desegregation agreement that would compel Westchester County to create affordable housing in overwhelmingly white communities.

This is the future for Grandview.

I personally would welcome low income housing in Grandview. I think the city would have some adjustments but could live with 100 low income units. I think the schools would benefit from 100 low income school children, the exposure to only high and middle income kids is a shelter that doesn't give a full education to Grandview students.

I'm aware that my feeling are not shared by the majority of the community. Some of that is because of a fear of change. I don't think it is out of line to say an underlying thread of racism is present.

Big developments are profitable

If we take it as a given that new low income housing is inevitable in Grandview, why fear that Grandview Yard would be the location? There are smaller places a new development could be built, such as the site of the failed attempt called “Grandview Station” on 33. The problems with that site are no different than those faced by the Bear Creek people, unknown wastes buried in a dump present high costs for building and providing utilities would be expensive.

Grandview Yard will have utilities constructed and ready to go, thanks to the first phase of G.Y. construction. Cleanup of environmental problems will be finished soon.

Take a federal (and court approved) mandate for low income housing in predominately white communities, add the fact that larger projects make the developer more money. Maybe the feds offer increased funding to communities that accept big developments, and hold a stick of reduced fed funding to those communities who refuse to allow these developments.

Grandview schools can cope with 100 new kids. If a 500 unit development brings 500 new students, things start to go wrong, no matter what their economic background. A new school building would be needed, taxes would go up, resentment builds from Grandview parents who don't like the “interlopers”. Bad things happen in overcrowded schools.

Boo!

The preceding was a speculated future that has somewhere between 10 and 90 percent chance of happening. If you have a good argument for why this can't possibly occur, please send it in (use the feedback form on the left). I would be fine with doing a revision of this story if the facts prove it can't come true.

I don't think the part about a “thread of racism” being present in Grandview will need to be retracted. As a white person who grew up in a white farm community, even I feel a little creeped out by the near total whiteness of Grandview Hts. I don't think that happened by chance. Maybe that will be the topic of another post.

The city completed the negotiations in a week long push and immediately brought the deal to a vote at the council meeting last night (Aug 3). No mention was made of offering the residents of the city a chance to read through the stack of paperwork (unless you attended the meeting and were a fast reader).

Undoubtedly the negotiations were complex, and the average resident would have little understanding of all the technical jargon. The trade offs and negotiating positions might be above the comprehension of the average joe, and understanding this stuff was the job that the council members were given when they were voted into office. Still, this was a historical moment in the story of the city. Too bad we residents had no part in the back-slapping and faux Champagne toasts that the council members shared with the NRI lawyers.

The vote was not unanimous. Council member Gladman had questions about the income tax revenue that was to be used in the project, and expressed doubt that the council had done all that they could have to limit the use of those taxes. He gave the only no vote on the ordinance.

Because of the long term (up to 50 years) projections on the completion of all parts of the project and the funding deal, we may not know if the deal will be to the long term advantage to the city for many years – long after the Mayor and the present council members are gone.

Cross your fingers – and keep them crossed for the next half century.

Kids in the schools

One unresolved issue was the possibility of large numbers of housing units, and the resulting overcrowding of the schools. The deal included stepped increases in taxes going to the schools as the number of units built are increased, supposedly paying for any new facilities that would be needed. Who knows if this will be true.

According to council member V.J. there is little chance there could be large number of middle income, high children per family units built because of the cost of the land. But no hard limit on the number of units is part of the deal.

Columbus city deals

Also unresolved is the negotiating with the city of Columbus over the parts of the project that are outside Grandview. The statement from one of the council members about this was interesting – he thought there was no reason to come to any completion on these negotiations, because a new Mayor of Columbus might have a different stance on the issues of lost jobs and income taxes. I don't know if this is common wisdom among the NRI big shots, but if they think that Coleman will not be able to get re-elected they either have some inside information, or are betting that discontent with the Mayor will be increasing.

Chickens abandoned

And now something completely different. Council member Koelker withdrew her sponsorship of the chickens in back yard ordinance, bringing one of the most contentious issues the city has considered in past years to a whimpering end. The supporters of the chickens coops had some blame for the aborted issue, they didn't do the kind of public advocation of the issue that could have brought success. A Grandview chicken supporters website and holding meetings would have brought more debate and firmed up rules that could have a better chance of passage.

(later) I didn't get any word on retrying the ordinance from Koelker when I asked her about it prior to the council meeting, and I didn't stick around to hear the discussion, but the TWG said the ordinance might be brought back later. Unless the chicken supporters start working harder I don't see this going anywhere.

The Grandview Yard first phase, with an estimated price tag of $40 million, was presented to Grandview Heights' planning commission. Dispatch story, a post on CU with renderings of the buildings. This part of the development will include a 126-room Hyatt hotel, an Urban Active Fitness Center, a Jason’s Deli, a three-story office building, and a two story parking garage.

When they still have no major retail signed and are starting construction in the “hope that it will generate more interest”, I fail to see how this is sign that the full plans for the G.Y. have any more chance of coming to fruition. Without a recovery in the economy there is no reason to think any additional construction will be on the way.

At least one school board member is thinking about the future that the planned 475 (number from the second round of projections by NRI) residential units might bring. From the Tri-V story:

While Grassbaugh said agreement advancements continue,  one board member was unsatisfied with residential plans for the Yard. Board member Gary Heydinger expressed his concerns that not placing limits on residential units for the evolving project could place undue strain on the district.
"I think now's the time to put some limits on it," Heydinger said. Large numbers of family-sized units could bring a large number of students to the district, and large numbers of smaller units could bring negative votes to future school levies, Heydinger said.

If the Yard is built with the full number of residential units set in the plans, Grandview schools might be hit with a flood of new students. The anticipated tax revenue would be eaten if a new school had to be built for a large additional number of kids.

(Later) This story in the TWG has an unusual quote by school super O'Reilly. When asked about a cap on the residential units in G.Y., he said:

"If we (put in) a cap, than the 11 percent is gone and other pieces are gone," O'Reilly said. The way I look at it is to get a cap we would be giving away a lot of money for something that more than likely won't happen," he said. "We will be giving up a lot of money on the small chance that a lot of kids will be added."

More on this later with an email from O'Reilly.

(Later edit) The store is open 8-5 Tuesday-Friday the week of July 14-17, til 7 next week.

Jeffrey Zettler knows an opportunity when it presents itself.

Back in October of 2008 Zettler followed the story of the closing of the Grandview Trustworthy Hardware store, relocated from 5^th Ave. to Goodale Blvd. In posts on this blog and the local Columbus Underground blog, the story of the business move was told , with a struggle to establish a presence at the new location, and a sudden bankruptcy that left employees stranded.

The large number of posts mourning the loss of the hardware store on the CU website, both for the convenience of the location and the skill of the employees, gave Zettler the impetus to try to keep the store open in the original location on Goodale. He contacted the owner and the store manager, and tried to find a way to bring the location back to life. Unfortunately, the size of that location was a constricting factor that made long term plans doubtful.

Rather than sort out the complexities of a business that had gone though bankruptcy, Zettler decided to start fresh with a new hardware store a few blocks East on Goodale.

Goodale Pro Hardware (intentionally using a new name rather than continuing the Zettler name of his family owned stores) will be a reboot of the hardware business. He hopes the location will recapture the loyalty of Grandview consumers. I spoke with him as he worked inside the new location last week.

“We know that we can't compete with the big box hardware stores very much on price, but service and knowledge of employees is vital to building client trust. With Dave, the manager of the old store, we will build a lineup of knowledgeable people who will make this store a better choice for consumers.”

The right location

The store is opening in the front part of the 2-J supply building, across the street from Krema Peanut Butter factory.

“2-J HVAC Products was hustled out of their location further east on Goodale (by NRI) and purchased this building without a real need for the storefront - that business is wholesale. The location was just what we needed for our new store”.

I asked Mr. Zettler if the proximity to the proposed Grandview Yard had made it a more expensive location. He said that there may be some spill over effect of values sometime in the future, but had not been a real factor now. “The rents on Goodale are still low compared to 5^th ave. and other high traffic locations. And with the economy right now any inflation of rents is just not going to happen. This was the right place for us.”

I asked him if this down economy was really the right time to start a new store. “I typically view recessions as opportunities. The greatest companies in America were mostly started during credit dislocations like we have now.”

The new store will be a full service hardware store, offering standard services such as screen & glass installation, glass cutting and key duplication. A tool rental program and website are in development.

Good luck to Jeffrey Zettler and his new store, I'll check back with updates as the store opens (possibly in June).

Twitter feed for the store, a website is supposed to be on the way.

The store is open! 8-5 Tuesday-Friday this week, til 7 next week.

Grandview city council is asking for a renewal levy to be passed, and although they have done a passable job with controlling costs, they made a big mistake in approving the police contract in February of this year. I can't vote on that particular issue, so I'm going to have to make my voice heard by voting no on Issue 3 on May 5^th.

I don't know what Grandview police were thinking when they demanded a 3% per year raise for the three years of the contract. Maybe they are living in some dream world where raises continue year after year, without care or notice of the bad economy. Council President Reynolds and council members Von Jasinski and Panzera were not living in this dream world when they voted no on approving the contract.

Unfortunately council members Gladman, Jagers, Koelker and Hastie think there is money to spare in the city coffers, a false opinion. They have not learned that sometimes you have to be the bad guy who says no to unreasonable demands.

It will be up to the voters of Grandview to bring some reality back to the police, and vote no on issue 3.

(after the vote) Grandview Hts. voters were happy to pass issue 3, keeping the tax at the same rate. Initial vote was 773 yes, 125 no.

The big news for voting today was the results of the South-Western school district, a no vote on the levy caused the  school to immediately cancel all extracurricular activities - all sports, band, ect. A warning for the Grandview school, expected to have a levy in the fall.

Grandview city council is debating allowing chickens to be cooped in back yards, and although the issue itself has no great importance, the way the debate will be conducted is going to expose an ugly side of Grandview.

The editors of local papers are salivating over the headlines they will be writing. So far the TVN has written the heading “Opinions fly on chickens”, but the possibilities are endless and predictable. If there are letters written opposing the birds it will be “residents call fowl”, “neighbors mad at council's chicken dance”, and if defeated, “Hen housing plans has wings clipped”, etc., ad nauseam.

Flu facts

The possibility of poultry in Grandview spreading Avian Flu is the source of worry for those who have been following pandemic warnings from Asian cases (the TWG mentioned this issue). According to the CDC, at this point there is little danger.

Influenza A (H5N1) has been transmitted to people who are in close contact with infected birds. The virus has not spread to the US. If it was loose in this country there would be massive programs to limit the spread by killing flocks. If the virus was in Columbus, the few chickens that Grandview residents owned would be eradicated quickly (possibly by worried neighbors carrying torches).

The doomsday scenarios of a high fatality pandemic depends on the H5N1 virus mutating to a form that transmits easily between humans, no birds needed. The chickens in the back yard would have nothing to do with this scenario. Maybe they would be pecking the corpses of dead Grandview owners.

Arguments from ignorance

So far I haven't seen letters in the papers from outraged Grandview residents, but it's just a matter of time. Complaints about smells, noise, and general anti-animal prejudices are expected, and all will be written from ignorance – nobody in G.H. lives anywhere near chickens.

I personally don't have a strong opinion on the issue, and this is coming from a person who grew up on a farm. Maybe it has something to do with the summer I worked on a chicken ranch with thousands of birds and had my fill of trucking tankfulls of chicken waste (a hood is required when you are pelted with manure in the process of spreading it on the fields).

The pro-chicken arguments I have read so far are focused on home raised eggs as a healthy food. A stronger case can be made for giving the children in G.H. a learning experience that teaches eggs are not produced in a Styrofoam factory.

Hee Haw

Arguments about chicken smells and noises are valid, while lacking in experience. Inevitably another argument will be brought up - that Grandview should not become more like a rural community, that we will be attracting Cletus and his kin if chickens are allowed.

It's not PC to talk about Irish and drunks, or Blacks and watermelons. But invariably when rural residents are mentioned by city folks, the prejudices will be on full display. The stereotypes of rednecked ignoramuses in rusting pickups, living in shacks with inbred families (or conducting love affairs with the livestock) are commonly used and instead of being discouraged, these opinions are met with approving laughter.

The TV show Hee Haw was the equivalent of the Minstrel show, and while you don't see people wearing blackface any more, the attitude about rural residents that show generated are still acceptable. It's perfectly fine for G.H. kids to call the students of Millersport “The children of the corn”.

There can be a debate about chickens in G.H. that focuses on the facts about the birds. I don't have much hope that will happen. Instead, it will be about how Grandview should not be like rural areas and rural people, with the implications they are intellectually and culturally inferior, not quite as human as us.

(later) The sponsorship of the chicken ordinance was dropped by Koelker at the Aug. 3 council meeting. Unless the supporters of the chickens come back with a better plan (and publicity) the bird will not be the word.

The more I follow the Grandview Yard story, the more I feel that nothing will come of the project beyond the few buildings scheduled to start construction sometime this year. When they have no retail signed and are starting construction in the “hope that it will generate more interest”, all this posturing seems like a kabuki with no payoff. But Columbus is taking the project seriously enough to finally (after more than a year from the announcement of G.Y.) put up a bargaining position on the issue of lost jobs and tax revenue.

Both the Dispatch and the Tri-Village News had articles about the new request from Columbus mayor Coleman for tax money from G.Y. Interesting to read the differing viewpoints in these two stories, the Dispatch story leads with Columbus “fighting federal aid” if they don't get some tax money from the Yard. The TVN story turns down the heat and says Columbus will not “prevent the development”, just not do anything to help with federal aid without the right deal. Who knows which story is correct? These dealings will be done far from the public, so we are never going to know whether Coleman could be passive or active in blowing the G.Y. deal. The big D story sure puts the screws down harder, to the advantage of Coleman in the negotiations.

Why has it taken so long to get to the bargaining table with Columbus? Word in Grandview is that Mayor DeGraw has been trying for months to have talks with Coleman, but Coleman has stiff-armed all advances. Given the rapid changes in the economy during the last year this is not without logic. A deal made during the optimism of December 2007 would have been based on bad assumptions.

The Dispatch story goes into a little of the intra-regional fighting for business among central Ohio cities. This game is done too often and always makes businesses the winners, to the detriment of the schools and tax bases of our cities. The regional cooperation agreements mentioned in the story need to be completed to stop this game.

The news reports don't have much on NRI's position, with a foot in both the Arena District and the G.Y. The assumption is that they will only be pulling office space business from the older parts of downtown, that few will move out of new spaces in the A.D. just to relocate a mile away. The A.D. has no retail sales to speak of, so that's not a conflict. The housing in G.Y. would be attractive to parents who want good schools, impacting a different market segment. The restaurant and entertainment business in the A.D. could be negatively effected by G.Y. , I guess NRI thinks there will be room for both (although the drop in the Brewery District fortune points to a flaw in that assumption).

Given the long history of the Arena District and the Columbus, you might also assume there are well-trod pathways between the offices of NRI and the city. Given this burst of discontent by Coleman, I think the relationship is not a happy one. Seeing the A.D. prosper while the rest of downtown rots will do that.

Taxing numbers

The Columbus city position according to the Dispatch is that they want all of the income tax from jobs that move from the city to G.Y. They estimate 1K jobs and $35 million in lost tax income over the next 30 years. Patrik Bowman, G.H.'s director of administration and development, is quoted saying "You can't expect (100 percent of income taxes)." The article points out that Coleman refused to share tax money with Gahanna after Columbus lured away 900 jobs. Coleman doesn't seem to have a good position to make this demand.

Columbus officials also want $37 million over the next 30 years, for … well, just because. I didn't read any justification for this money other than lost potential for downtown development. Grandview has offered $20 million.

Some might view all these negotiations as extortion, some as fair compensation for lost opportunity. If Coleman really has the inside track with Obama that the article hints at, you would think he could be getting more direct federal economic stimulus money for Columbus's own projects. If he only has the power to say no to Grandview's hopes, that's B.S. But it is B.S. that Grandview can't afford to ignore.

One of the most frustrating parts of following the Grandview Yard story has been the lack of specific numbers on the costs of the public funding for specific elements of the development. Finally – after more than a year – some numbers have been put up. These economic projections, provided by Nationwide, may be worthless as the ever changing development plans are modified, and the political process to find the money continues, but at least we have something.

As reported in the March 11, 2009 TWG article, these numbers were presented to the Grandview Heights City Council's economic development committee: A total of 1.1-million square feet of office space; 450,000 square feet of retail space and 475 residential units. Private investment is expected to total $500-million.

Back in December of 2007 the numbers were: Commercial space – 1.5 to 2 million square feet. Residential units – 600 to 800, with up to 2000 new residents (increasing the population of Grandview up to 25%). Private investment – $900 million. This indicates a shrinking Yard, and smaller investment.

The public investment is projected at $119 million. That use to be $160M. The on-site costs include $10.22-million for public right of way acquisition; $4-million for parks; $18.48-million for streets; $19.68-million for utilities; and $25 million for parking.

The off-site projects are the railroad bridges at a cost of $21.6-million; widening Goodale for about $8-million; widening Third Avenue, about $5-million; widening Olentangy River Road, $2.56-million; road work on Northwest Boulevard, $2.65-million; and widening the 315 ramp, $1.66-million.

That's a total of $41.6 million for roads and bridges that are mostly in the city of Columbus. Compare that to the $53 M that was the total cost of the public funding for the Area District. Do you now understand why this will be a nightmare to work out with Columbus?

This is what the article said about the schools: “The city has negotiated that the developer will maintain the property tax to the school district and maintain that base, which will total about $39-million over 30 years. The school district will get an annual payment of 10 percent of the new property tax ahead of the bond, lending holders, estimated at an additional $37-million over 30 years.”

I don't quite understand what that means, I suspect there was some mis-translation in the reporting, but I think that means that the schools will not be screwed. Still missing from projections is the number of school age children to be expected in G.Y., so any guess about the effect on the schools is pure speculation.

The article gave assumptions on income tax revenue, most of which is so speculative it's not worth commenting on. This line, however, was said by the Mayor: “The goal, however, is not to use income tax revenue to pay the cost of off-site improvements.” Yes, that's a good goal. I'd also like to have the goal of lower taxes and free health care. I think the Mayor and I will both be disappointed.

When the article mentioned the start of the project this year, it quoted Steve Reynolds saying “The developer is looking to show the project will happen and hopefully that will generate more interest." OK. If the economy doesn't improve, this will be a really, really big hope.